This is the golden question, but the answer is not as sexy. A trend usually lasts at least multiple days (intraday movements don’t qualify as trends). A trend that lasts days or several weeks is a small trend, very short term.
But in Forex, most trends last a year or more and long-term trends can last a decade. However during these trends will be price corrections and it’s sometimes difficult to tell whether the trend has ended or it’s just a correction.
Are we currently in a bear market?
We are currently in a bear market in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. A bear market is also a trend. The current bear market in the S&P 500 was officially called on June 13, 2022. This year is pretty rough all over the world and we’re probably in a recession already. The Forex market is also affected but as long as the trend is your friend, there are plenty opportunities.
Are we in late-cycle?
The US is in the late-cycle expansion phase with moderate recession risk. The economy is exhibiting late-cycle trends including a tight labor market, declining profit margins, rising inventories, contractionary monetary policy, and a flatter yield curve.
What signals the end of a bear market?
The most obvious signal is a strong price jump. The market moves with impulsive steps, which represent candlesticks with bigger bodies and smaller wicks, like the bullish engulfing candle.
Resistance levels keep getting broken and moving averages are heading upwards.
These signals need to last, so you’re going to see the full picture over time. They could be false signals or mere corrections so you need to watch the Fibonacci levels to determine if the current movement is more than just a correction.
When bear market will end?
A bear market is unique so it’s not going to be like the previous one. With this said, there are strong actions which prevent the stock market from rising, these are mainly the interest rates increases by the FED. If the FED stops increasing the interest rates altogether, the market will boom and this will also be the end of the bear market.
It looks simple but it’s not, because the FED can keep increasing the rates even if they do it at a lower pace, because it depends on inflation. However, they can’t keep increasing the rates indefinitely, so they will have to stop at some point.
A decent prediction is 2023. Sometimes next year, the FED will probably have to stop increasing the interest rates and the stock market will rally. That’s when the bear market will probably end.
But take this information with a grain of salt because even if the FED stops the inflation temporarily, it can rise back up and they’ll have to raise the rates again at the cost of the stock market.
Will there be a recession in 2023?
The US is probably already in a recession now, in 2022, but usually a recession isn’t called until after the fact. A lot of analysts say that everything is going down and we’re heading into a big depression, not just a recession, so it’s hard to tell what’s going to happen next year, but it’s also possible to start a bull market in 2023.